Market Pulse: China’s Pork Tariffs Hit EU; FAO Meat Prices at Record; AVEC Presses for Import Shields; EU–Mercosur Deal Revived (Poland Objects)
Trade shocks and policy moves reshape Q4 risk for EU pork and poultry; one eye on Mercosur, the other on China.
1) China slaps provisional anti-dumping duties on EU pork (15.6%–62.4%)
What happened: China’s Ministry of Commerce announced provisional anti-dumping duties on EU pork and by-products, effective 10 September 2025. The steepest rates could hit major exporters in Spain, Netherlands, Denmark, Germany and Belgium.
Why it matters: EU packers who leaned on China to clear fifth-quarter cuts now face margin pressure and product redirection into the EU/MENA. Expect heavier competition in price-sensitive channels and potential offal build-ups.
Implications & suggested actions (buyers/suppliers):
EU pork buyers (retail/foodservice): Watch for short-term promotions as exporters re-route volume; lock Q4–Q1 options where storage allows.
Processors/exporters: Fast-track market diversification (Mexico, Philippines, Africa); revisit cut-programme mix to prioritise EU-demanded specs.
Coldstores/logistics: Prepare for higher inbound pork inventories and longer dwell times; update fee schedules and SLA buffers.
2) FAO: Global meat price sub-index hits a record in August
What happened: FAO’s food price update shows the meat price index at a new high in August, with robust beef demand a key driver even as dairy eased. thepoultrysite.com
Why it matters: High global benchmarks underpin EU beef offers and compress import arbitrage. Pork/poultry may gain relative appeal where consumers trade down.
Implications & suggested actions:
Beef buyers: Stagger tenders and consider mixed primal strategies (lower-cost forequarter blends) to defend margins.
Poultry suppliers: Lean into value lines (thigh/leg meat) and convenience SKUs; highlight price-per-protein messaging.
3) AVEC General Assembly: EU poultry calls for stronger import protection
What happened: At today’s AVEC meeting, EU poultry leaders urged tighter safeguards against lower-standard imports amid sustained disease and cost pressures.
Why it matters: Policy tailwinds (monitoring/safeguards) could stiffen competition barriers in 2026 contracts, especially versus Brazil/Thailand on cooked/processed lines.
Implications & suggested actions:
EU processors: Document compliance (welfare, antibiotics, sustainability) and quantify cost deltas vs. imports—use in buyer negotiations.
Distributors: Hedge exposure to non-EU origin by securing dual-origin specs where possible.
4) EU revives Mercosur deal with farm-import safeguards; Poland objects but can’t block
What happened (Eastern Europe focus): The Commission put the EU–Mercosur accord back on track (4 Sept), sweetening it with a triggered safeguard that could suspend preferential access for sensitive farm products like beef if import volumes/prices breach set thresholds. Poland maintains opposition but says it lacks partners to block the pact.
Why it matters: If passed, beef import flows from South America could grow—but the new rapid-response safeguard reduces downside risk for EU cattle sectors (notably in PL/FR/IE).
Implications & suggested actions:
Beef buyers: Scenario-plan for incremental Mercosur volume in late-2026 tenders; track safeguard triggers to time buys.
EU producers: Prepare communications on standards parity and traceability; leverage safeguard language in retailer contract clauses.
5) UK: AHDB says H1 pig offal exports at record; total UK pig imports ease
What happened: AHDB (8 Sept) reports UK pig offal exports at a record high in H1 2025, while overall pig meat imports softened. Export growth reflects diversified market access despite China volatility.
Why it matters: Even with China risk, by-product monetisation is offsetting parts of the cutout for UK plants—supportive for kill schedules and pricing discipline.
Implications & suggested actions:
UK processors: Continue maximising fifth-quarter recovery; review offal spec flexibility to unlock additional destinations.
EU buyers: Monitor UK offer dynamics; tighter UK import needs could modestly firm continental availability in Q4.
Sources
China provisional anti-dumping duties on EU pork (Sept 5): Associated Press
FAO meat price index record high (Sept 5): The Poultry Site
AVEC General Assembly—EU poultry calls for stronger import protection (Sept 9): Poultry News
EU–Mercosur revived with safeguard trigger; Poland’s stance (Sept 4): The Pig Site
UK pig trade H1 2025—AHDB analysis + press coverage (Sept 8): AHDB