The Uneven Future of Food
A global food report from the FAO and OECD reveals that global consumption of animal-based foods is set to rise, but unequal access and environmental concerns reveal deeper global imbalances.
A Decade of Growth, With Uneven Gains
Global appetites for meat, dairy, and fish are growing fast—especially in developing nations. According to a new joint report from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), demand for animal-source foods is expected to increase significantly by 2034, driven by rising incomes and urbanization across middle-income countries.
This projected growth is not just about quantity. It reflects shifting dietary patterns and a desire for more protein-rich, varied meals among the world’s expanding middle class. But while many populations move toward more nutrient-dense diets, the path to progress is far from uniform.
Nutrition Gains—But Not for Everyone
By 2034, average global consumption of animal-sourced foods—including meat, dairy, and eggs—is expected to grow by 6%. In lower middle-income countries, that increase jumps to 24%, reflecting the transformative effects of economic development and urban migration. People in these countries are gaining more access to nutritious, protein-rich foods, a change that can help reduce hunger and improve overall health.
Yet, in low-income countries, consumption levels will remain stubbornly low—just 143 kilocalories per person per day, less than half of what’s considered essential for a healthy diet. These figures point to persistent inequalities in access to quality food, even as global production surges.
FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu emphasized that while these trends are encouraging in some regions, much more needs to be done to ensure that the world’s poorest communities also benefit from improved nutrition.
More Production, More Pressure
To meet the growing demand, agricultural production is projected to rise by 14% over the next decade. The output of meat, dairy, and eggs alone is forecasted to climb by 17%, while livestock numbers are expected to grow by 7%. This growth will be powered mainly by productivity gains, especially in emerging economies.
However, increased output brings environmental consequences. Direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are projected to rise by 6% by 2034. While technological improvements will make farming more efficient—with fewer emissions per unit of food—the total emissions burden will still grow unless further measures are taken.
The Productivity Puzzle
Some of the challenges are regional. For instance, Sub-Saharan Africa’s beef herd is set to grow by 15%, yet productivity remains far below that of North America. Meanwhile, high-income countries may see reduced per capita consumption of fats and sweeteners due to health policies and shifting consumer preferences.
Globally, cereal yields will grow modestly—about 0.9% per year—while the amount of land used for cereal farming will expand by just 0.14% annually, half the rate seen in the past decade. By 2034, 40% of cereals will be used directly for food, 33% for animal feed, and the rest for biofuel and industrial uses.
Toward a Balanced Future
Despite the challenges, the report outlines a promising scenario. If countries invest in sustainable practices—such as precision agriculture, better animal feed, and emissions-reducing technology—it’s possible to both improve global nutrition and reduce emissions by up to 7% below today’s levels by 2034.
Achieving this “win-win” outcome will require coordinated efforts across governments, industries, and international institutions. Policies must be designed not just to boost production but to ensure that progress is shared and sustainable.
Trade as a Lifeline
The report also underscores the critical role of global trade. By 2034, 22% of all food calories consumed will have crossed international borders. That makes fair, rules-based trade essential to global food security—especially for countries that depend on imports to meet their dietary needs.
“Trade helps balance surpluses and deficits, stabilizes prices, and improves access to both nutrition and sustainable food systems,” the report concludes.
What Comes Next
The Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034 provides more than just numbers—it delivers a clear message: global food systems are evolving rapidly, but their benefits are not yet reaching everyone. Bridging the gap between rising production and equitable access, while keeping emissions in check, is the next frontier for global agriculture.
The choices made today—in technology, policy, and trade—will shape the food and climate outcomes of tomorrow.