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Inflation, Trade & Biosecurity: Daily Meat Market Pulse – 31 July 2025
Published about 1 month ago in News

Inflation, Trade & Biosecurity: Daily Meat Market Pulse – 31 July 2025

Price inflation, a landmark US trade deal, and major corporate acquisitions signal a volatile period for the European meat sector.

Profile picture of Bo Pedersen
Bo Pedersen
Chief Revenue Officer

Market trends – beef inflation and price signals

Research published by the UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) and Quality Meat Scotland shows that beef prices have out-stripped general inflation due to constrained supply. Retail beef inflation reached 9.1 % in May 2025, with average prices at £9.39/kg (€10.87). If inflation rose to 16 %, modelling suggests retail beef volumes could drop by around 12,500 tonnes. In food-service outlets, average prices for beef dishes have increased to around £6 (€6.95).

The latest AIMS Retailer Meat and Poultry Inflation Tracker (reported 31 July) corroborated these price signals. It found overall fresh beef, lamb, pork and chicken prices rose 0.35 % month-on-month (lamb up 0.53 %, pork 0.82 %, chicken 0.19 %) and 13 % year-on-year. Beef prices increased 1.32 %, largely because lean mince rose 3.78 % to £10.15/kg and standard mince 4.86 % to £6.69/kg. Pork shoulder price surged 10.22 %. GB pig farmers continue to see firmer returns, with the EU-spec Standard Pig Price (SPP) rising 0.56 p to 208.04 p/kg and slaughterings up week-on-week.

Implications and suggested actions:

  • Farmers should reassess herd expansion plans against projected demand. Rising beef prices could support returns but may reduce retail volume if inflation accelerates. Monitoring input costs (feed, energy) and hedging feed wheat (now £176/t for November contracts) can help manage margin risk.

  • Processors should work closely with suppliers to secure consistent volumes as supply constraints intensify. The AHDB recommends promotional activity and communication of British beef’s taste and nutritional benefits; processors can collaborate with retailers on value-added cuts and packaging.

  • Wholesalers and retailers may need to adjust product mix and pricing. With beef dish prices rising, menus could incorporate cheaper cuts or alternative proteins. Retailers should consider targeted promotions and emphasise provenance to retain consumers.

Corporate moves – expansion, investment and compliance

Cranswick reports strong growth and invests in pet-food UK meat company Cranswick reported like-for-like revenue growth of 7.9 % in Q1, with premium unprocessed meat lines outperforming due to consumer demand. The company has been expanding its supply chain through acquisitions such as Blakemans and JSR Genetics. Cranswick plans to invest £14 million to expand its Lincoln pet-food facility and expects full-year profit in line with market expectations.

Mewery secures funding for cultivated meat Czech cultivated-meat start-up Mewery has received €2.5 million from the EU’s EIC Accelerator, raising total funding to €3 million. The funding will help scale its co-cultivation method combining pork and microalgae cells and allow pilot projects with meat producers. The company aims to produce larger kilogram volumes by year-end.

Sofina Foods buys Finnebrogue Canadian group Sofina Foods has acquired Northern Irish processor Finnebrogue, which employs about 1,200 people across four facilities. The deal adds Finnebrogue’s outdoor-bred pork, sausages, rashers, ham and plant-based products to Sofina’s European portfolio. Sofina Foods Europe now has about 9,000 employees across 27 sites.

FrieslandCampina sells Romanian operations Dutch dairy cooperative FrieslandCampina has agreed to sell its operations in Romania—including the Napolact brand and production sites in Cluj-Napoca and Târgu Mureș—to Hungary’s Bonafarm Group. The company said the Romanian business offered “limited synergy with the Europe portfolio” and did not contribute to the valorisation of its members’ milk; the sale aligns with its strategy of focusing on core markets where members’ milk can be optimally valorised.

Moy Park fined for environmental breaches Poultry processor Moy Park was fined £4,000 after pleading guilty to multiple violations of pollution prevention and control regulations at its Ballymena plant. Offences included failure to store animal by-products in leak-proof receptacles and to maintain equipment; the fine serves as a reminder that regulators are tightening environmental compliance.

Implications and suggested actions:

  • Farmers and suppliers should follow corporate movements closely. Cranswick’s pet-food investment signals opportunities for by-products, while the Mewery funding underscores the growing alternative-protein sector—diversification may be prudent.

  • Processors and manufacturers should ensure environmental compliance following Moy Park’s fine and consider strategic acquisitions or divestments to focus on core markets, as FrieslandCampina has done.

  • Wholesalers and retailers should evaluate the product mix implications of these deals; Finnebrogue’s integration into Sofina may lead to new product lines or supply chain efficiencies, while the sale of Napolact could affect dairy sourcing.

International trade – tariffs and negotiations

EU–US trade deal: 15 % tariff ceiling and new market access On 27 July 2025 the United States and the European Union agreed a framework trade deal that will take effect on 1 August 2025. Key elements include:

  • A 15 % baseline tariff on almost all EU goods entering the U.S., replacing the existing patchwork of rates and acting as a ceiling. Cars and car parts will face this rate instead of 27.5 %, while European steel, aluminium and copper exports will remain subject to 50 % tariffs until quota systems are finalised.

  • Zero-for-zero tariffs on certain products, including aircraft, some chemicals and generic drugs, semiconductor-making equipment and selected agricultural products—excluding sensitive items like beef, poultry or sugar.

  • New market access for U.S. products: the EU will allow limited quantities of Alaska pollock, Pacific salmon and shrimp as well as improved access for U.S. soya bean oil, planting seeds, grains, nuts and processed food (tomato ketchup, cocoa, biscuits).

  • The EU pledged to make $750 billion in strategic purchases of U.S. oil, liquefied natural gas and nuclear technology and to buy €40 billion worth of U.S. AI chips. European companies intend to invest $600 billion in the U.S.

  • Both sides will cooperate on automotive and food-safety standards, potentially streamlining certification for U.S. pork and dairy products.

Industry reaction and ongoing challenges Farm groups emphasise that the new deal is only a starting point. They note that non-tariff barriers—such as EU rules on pesticides, antibiotics and proof that beef imports do not contribute to deforestation—were not resolved and will require further negotiations. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said a 15 % tariff is preferable to a higher rate and reflects a political agreement rather than a legally binding treaty. The U.S. meat export federation is hopeful but acknowledges that details on non-tariff measures are unclear.

Implications and suggested actions:

  • Export-oriented farmers and processors should prepare for a 15 % tariff on sales to the U.S. and assess competitiveness relative to domestic markets. Diversifying export destinations and focusing on value-added products may help offset tariff costs.

  • Importers and wholesalers should note that the EU will allow more U.S. fish and processed foods. This could introduce new competition for EU seafood and value-added products; sourcing strategies may need adjustment.

  • Retailers and consumers may face price changes as tariffs filter through the supply chain. Clear communication about origin, sustainability and quality will be vital to maintain market share, particularly given deforestation-proof requirements for imported beef.

Animal health & disease

Newcastle disease outbreaks in Poland Poland has reported around 50 poultry flocks affected by Newcastle disease since September 2024, with the latest cases in July involving 60,998 and 137,482 hens, causing hundreds of deaths. Control measures include stamping out, zoning, surveillance and waste disposal. Although outbreaks are now mainly in wild birds elsewhere in Europe, the Polish situation underscores the continuing risk.

Suggested actions: Farmers and processors should reinforce biosecurity protocols, monitor flocks and herds for unusual mortality, and liaise with veterinarians and government agencies on disease surveillance. Wholesalers and retailers should diversify supply options and communicate transparently about any biosecurity-related shortages.

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