Rising Meat Prices & Fresh Trends: EU/UK Market Update (29 July 2025)

Meat price inflation squeezes budgets

Data from NielsenIQ and the British Retail Consortium (BRC) show that food inflation in July climbed to 4 % year‑on‑year, while fresh food inflation stood at 3.2 % and ambient food inflation 5.1 %. BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson warned that staples such as meat and tea were among the hardest hit because wholesale prices have been squeezed by tight global supplies. NIQ’s Mike Watkins noted that retailers are turning to promotions to retain customers and that rising prices may hurt households during the summer.

Implication: For processors and wholesalers, higher input costs mean margins could be under pressure. Retailers may need to increase promotions or adjust product mix to maintain footfall, while farmers should monitor feed and energy costs closely and look for contracts that lock in prices. Consumers’ sensitivity to price makes value perception critical for all players in the supply chain.

Corporate investments continue

Following yesterday’s update on Cranswick’s quarterly performance, today’s notable corporate news comes from tinned‑meat and ready‑meal producer Princes, which announced an £83 million real‑estate investment. The company purchased Liverpool’s Royal Liver Building and the Cross Green facility in Leeds to provide a stable base for warehousing and corporate operations. Princes said the acquisitions will help drive group revenue to €3.2 billion in 2025, placing it on course toward a €5 billion target by 2030.

Implication: Continued investment by leading processors signals confidence in premium meat demand and offers opportunities for suppliers who can meet scale, quality and welfare requirements. Wholesalers and retailers should anticipate greater availability of premium products and increased competition from vertically integrated firms.

EU beef output falls, imports rise

According to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), beef production across the EU fell by about 3 % in the first quarter of 2025 – a decline of 56 000 tonnes, bringing total Q1 production down to 1.58 million tonnes. Output dropped sharply in France, Germany and the Netherlands, where disease, profitability challenges and structural herd decline have curtailed supply. The EU has approved a €128 million fund to compensate Dutch livestock farmers who voluntarily close operations to meet nitrogen and nature targets. By contrast, Poland and Ireland increased production as strong domestic prices and export demand encouraged animals to be brought forward.

Despite weaker European production, demand has held firm and beef imports into the EU‑27 jumped 11 % year‑on‑year to about 77 000 tonnes. The growth came largely from Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. For UK producers, there is an opportunity: lower EU production could increase demand for UK beef, yet the average EU steer price (~609 p/kg) remains about 41 pence below the UK price, which may prompt EU buyers to source more competitively priced imports from South America.

Implication: UK beef farmers may benefit from tighter EU supply, but they need to watch currency movements and price differentials. Processors and exporters should monitor import demand in mainland Europe and the competitive threat from South American suppliers. Wholesalers should hedge against potential price volatility, and retailers may need to justify higher prices to consumers.

Pig meat retail trends

AHDB’s consumer‑insight data for the 12 weeks ending 13 July 2025 showed that pig meat products saw a 3.2 % increase in spending, driven by a 1.4 % rise in volumes and a 1.7 % increase in average prices. Primary pig meat volumes grew 2.6 %, with notable gains in belly (+7.3 %), mince (+14.9 %), ribs (+28.9 %) and steak (+6.1 %), although roasting joints declined by 5.2 %. Processed pig meat volumes slipped 0.5 % overall, with bacon rasher volumes down 6.6 % despite a price reduction, but sausages (+2.0 %) and sliced cooked meats (+1.5 %) posted modest volume gains. Value‑added categories performed best: total added‑value products saw a 10.9 % increase, with marinades up 19.8 %, ready‑to‑cook items up 7.5 % and sous‑vide products up 2.9 %.

Implication: The data point to resilient consumer demand for pork, particularly for convenience and value‑added products. Farmers could see firmer prices if volumes stay strong. Processors and wholesalers may want to focus on marinated and ready‑to‑cook ranges, while reconsidering low‑performing categories like roasting joints. Retailers should consider promoting sausages and sliced meats while trimming slow movers and emphasising premium cuts.

Plant‑based alternatives gather steam

A new market analysis predicts that Europe’s plant‑based meat market will grow from USD 2.47 billion in 2024 to USD 9.54 billion by 2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of about 16 %. The surge is driven by health awareness, sustainability concerns and shifting diets in key markets such as Germany, the UK and the Netherlands. Consumers are gravitating toward flexitarian and vegetarian lifestyles, while retailers expand product ranges and investors back innovation (for example, Project Eaden raised €15 million for fibre‑spinning technology). Nevertheless, plant‑based products face challenges: higher prices compared with conventional meat and lingering taste and texture limitations continue to deter many consumers.

Implication: Meat processors and wholesalers could diversify into plant‑based lines to capture new revenue streams or partner with startups. Farmers may see competition for consumer attention and could explore supplying pulses or oilseeds used in meat substitutes. Retailers should balance shelf space between animal‑based and alternative proteins to meet diverse consumer preferences.

Consumer insights: butchers vs. pre‑packaged

Independent butcher shops and supermarket butcher counters account for roughly 7 % of total red‑meat and poultry sales (about 183 million kg). AHDB research found that loose‑packaged meat and poultry volumes fell 3.2 %, whereas pre‑packaged products grew 0.7 % in the 52 weeks to 20 April 2025. Yet consumers still value the personal touch: 54 % of shoppers feel a stronger connection to their food when buying from a counter. The study highlighted merchandising tactics that boost purchase intent, such as large posters and chalk boards to attract attention, leaflets and recipe cards at the counter, and messages about health, British farming expertise, local origin, welfare schemes and nutrition. Even small flags displaying awards or vitamin information can influence decisions.

Implication: For butchers and independent retailers, investing in visual merchandising, storytelling and provenance messaging could help reverse declining volumes. Farmers supplying these outlets should emphasise local origin and welfare credentials. Processors and wholesalers might provide marketing materials and product information that highlight nutritional benefits and certifications.

Food safety and traceability spotlight

Cardiff Council and Merthyr Crown Court recently secured prosecutions against two individuals who falsely distributed halal‑labelled chicken to restaurants in Wales. Investigators seized 2 840 kg of frozen meat and uncovered widespread hygiene failings, including defrosted and refrozen poultry, meat past its sell‑by date, and unmarked meat transported in unclean, unrefrigerated vehicles. Helim Miah was jailed for four years and eight months while Noaf Rahman received a suspended sentence. The court found that the men mislabelled non‑halal chicken as halal, ignored hygiene rules, failed to track origin and sold unsafe meat.

Implication: The case underscores the critical importance of traceability and compliance. Processors and wholesalers must maintain robust records and hygiene practices, especially for certified products such as halal meat. Retailers should verify suppliers and demand documentation. Farmers and abattoirs should ensure certification processes are transparent to protect the integrity of speciality markets and build consumer trust.

Putting it all together

The EU/UK meat processing landscape is marked by contrasting forces. Tight beef supplies in Europe and strong pork demand are pushing prices higher, while rising input costs and inflation pressure household budgets. Leading processors continue to invest in assets and plant‑based alternatives are expanding rapidly, but producers must remain agile in the face of policy changes, disease outbreaks and shifting consumer preferences. Meanwhile, consumers seek authenticity, provenance and transparency from butchers and retailers. Staying informed and responding quickly will help Meat Borsa members navigate these dynamics.

Sources

NIQ/BRC food‑inflation report (29 July 2025): Data on food, fresh‑food and ambient‑food inflation and comments from NIQ and BRC. Link
Princes investment announcement (29 July 2025): Acquisition of Royal Liver Building and Cross Green facility and projected revenue. Link
AHDB beef‑market update (Q1 2025): Decline in EU beef production, reasons, funding for Dutch herd reductions, import growth and price disparity. Link
AHDB consumer‑insight report (13 July 2025): Pig meat retail performance, including volume and spend changes and growth in value‑added categories. Link
AHDB/Worldpanel research on butcher counters (April 2025): Market share, volume trends and merchandising tactics. Link
Europe plant‑based meat market forecast (29 July 2025): Market size, growth drivers and challenges. Link
Cardiff Council prosecutions (25 July 2025): Details of halal meat fraud, hygiene failings and sentencing. Link